Friday, June 13

"...and free Boston Pizza for a year."

Draft Day Scenarios

With the 2008 NHL Draft less than a week away, it's time to put the GM hats on again. Trade up? Trade down? Stick to the rebuild, or give it one more run with Sundin? Here are four Draft Day scenarios for you to mull over. Some are more realistic than others, and some will have your wringing your hands. What would you do?

SCENARIO #1: Dean Lombardi emerged from talks with L.A. Kings ownership last week with a new direction - get even younger. So, he fired coach Marc Crawford and headed into the draft with 14 picks (including 8 in the first 3 rounds), looking to re-stock the organization with quality prospects. With some nice young players up front, L.A. is looking to add a couple blue chip defence prospects to go along with Jack Johnson. Having already selected Drew Doughty with the #2 overall pick, the Kings want the #7 pick to snag one of Alex Pietrangelo or Tyler Myers.

The Offer:

To Los Angeles: Toronto's #1 pick (#7 overall)

To Toronto: Alexander Frolov, Dallas' #1 pick (#28 overall), L.A.'s #2 pick (#32 overall) and Calgary's #2 pick (#47 overall)

Pro/Con: For moving down 21 spots, the Leafs get an affordable 30 goal scorer who is signed for 2 more years, and is just 26 years old. They also add a couple high picks in the 2nd round to help replenish the cupboard. It's a quantity over quality deal, as the Leafs would lose out on a possible first pairing defenceman. Worth the price? It depends on your projection for Tyler Myers. Is he the next Chara, or just a more skilled version of Hal Gill?

SCENARIO #2: The Edmonton Oilers are without a 2nd and 3rd round pick after the Dustin Penner offer sheet. With a bundle of NHL calibre forwards on the roster, the Oilers are looking to move bodies and add some picks. The phone rings at the Leafs draft table just before the start of the 2nd round.

The Offer:

To Edmonton: Pittsburgh's #2 pick (#59 overall) and Toronto's #3 pick (#67 overall).

To Toronto: Rob Schremp

Pro/Con: A YouTube legend, Schremp has always been a wild card. Drafted #25 overall in 2004, and led the OHL in scoring in 2005-06. He has as much skill as anybody, but needs work on his skating and strength. After two years honing his game in the AHL, and a dedicated off-season training program, he appears ready to make the jump. Trouble is, the Oilers are deep up front and have a lot of youth already. The Leafs would be giving up two picks in a strong draft year, but would they get someone with Schremp's potential at #59 or #67? He's a boom or bust proposition, but might be worth the mild risk for a rebuilding team.

SCENARIO #3: The Leafs have already selected Tyler Myers at #7 and amazingly, Nikita Filatov has slipped to #9. With Nashville on the clock, you sense a chance to hit a home run and grab the skilled Russian, who some say is the 2nd best player in the draft. With the cost-conscious Predators also owning the #15 pick, and some good youth already in the system, Nashville is willing to talk trade. But what's the price?

To Nashville: Toronto's #1 pick in 2009.

To Toronto: Florida's #1 pick (#9 overall).

Pro/Con: There's just one question. How good do you think the Leafs will be this year? The Leafs are getting a top 10 pick in a strong year, with the intention of selecting a dynamic, front-line winger. But, are you giving up the chance at selecting John Tavares, Victor Hedman, or Jared Cowen next year? If the Leafs aren't a lottery team, do you make that deal? With the expected bounce you get in the first year of a new coach, you have to think the Leafs will be picking outside the top 10 next year.

SCENARIO #4: The Atlanta Thrashers have one of the weakest prospect pools in the NHL and have made the decision to cut salary and start from scratch. With the #3 and #29 overall picks, they will get two good players, but they want to add some established NHL youth and even more prospect depth. After selecting Zach Bogosian with the #3 pick, they come calling for the #7 overall pick.

The Offer:

To Atlanta: Toronto's #1 pick (#7 overall), Toronto's #1 pick in 2009, Alex Steen, Jiri Tlusty, and Anton Stralman.

To Toronto: Ilya Kovalchuk

Pro/Con: The Leafs get the NHL's premier goal scorer (in his prime), but have to give up their best young players and high picks to do it. Is this really the way to rebuild? That said, Kovalchuk is only 25-years-old himself, and his goals would single-handedly keep the Leafs out of the Tavares sweepstakes. How often do you get a chance to get a 60-goal scorer in his prime? Could Kovalchuk handle the heat in Toronto? Probably, as long as he could walk around in his loin cloth all day.

Let's hear your thoughts, armchair GM's.


Connie said...

"Going younger" means not signing any more free agents over 30 or close to that mark. The Kings aren't going to trade Frolov, at least not for a couple of years. Try changing that to Michael Cammalleri and see how that looks.

I'm pretty sure Pietrangelo will go in the top 5 somewhere, so having the #7 pick will be moot. I want Schenn but he'll go before the 7th pick as well.

Moose said...

Connie: Yeah, I originally had Cammalleri as part of that deal since Lombardi has been open to moving him since the arbitration ruling he got. But he's a UFA next year, and the Leafs would probably want Frolov. You gotta give to get.

As for Pietrangelo, as of right now the top 5 probably looks like this, barring any trades:

Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, the Blues are said to want Schenn at #4and a lot of people say the Islanders are high on Filatov at #5. That leaves Pietrangelo falling to #6. A lot of dominos in the top 5-10 fall with Filatov.

Realistically, the Kings might be chasing a top 3 pick next year as well. But if they load up in this draft and next, they are gonna be a force in the long as Lombardi doesn't screw it up.

"Dave Schultz" said...

all this analysis talk, I just wanna say the Fletcher/Mandel pic is the funniest shit I have seen in a very loooonnnnngg time. Nicely done.

Connie said...

Moose - I'm really hoping that we don't get a high pick after next season. The prospects in the AHL are looking promising, and hopefully at least 3 will be here replacing the older guys who turned out to be a wash.

I haven't done too much research on Filatov, but I'm not surprised to hear the Islanders are interested. I can't wait for next week.

As for Lombardi "screwing it up," I have the utmost confidence he'll get the guys the club needs. We're lacking a coach right now, and that's something that can definitely change the way my club looks. Although, I wanted Hartsburg. Damn.

Moose said...

Schultz: Thanks. Assist to the art deparment (Greener) for the work on the headdress.

Connie: Purcell, Boyle and Lewis are all coming, but the goalie situation is still problematic. Do you sign a veteran UFA to ease in Bernier? I don't think you want him as your #1 just yet - for his sake. Lombardi is pretty sharp, I think Calder, Nagy, Stuart and Handzus were/are just bridges to get to the next phase.

The only thing I worry about is subjecting Brown and Kopitar to a couple more years of losing. You want these uys to get a taste of success for their development and mental well-being.

Connie said...

Moose - Lewis? Trevor Lewis? No, I meant Moulson. Lewis isn't a spark on my radar, mostly because he wasn't called up last season at all.

Management is hoping LaBarbera can be the #1, which I can fully see him doing since he was playing with injuries last season. Ersberg can be a competent backup, but Bernier is going to fight like crazy for a spot next season, no doubt. But I definitely don't want him here behind a weak team; a year in the AHL will do him a lot of good.

Nagy.. what a mistake that was. Brownie and Kopi aren't the only two in the core so far; add JJ and O'Sullivan. P.S. I'm glad there's someone outside of LA that's interested in the team, enough to where I can have a discussion with. So, thanks!

Moose said...

Connie: Thanks, you really know and love your team. I love that! Oddly enough, half of us at HS/HS actually live in L.A. (Greener and I). BTW: When I say "half of us" I don't want to mislead you into thinking you'll ever see another post from the other two jackals that we started this blog with, but hey, I digress. I've been an Oiler fan almost since birth, and he's a Leafs fan, originally from Toronto.

Moulson is ready for the NHL now, but I think Lewis has a better chance to be an impact player than he does. You gotta remember, Moulson is 3+ years older and has played 4 years of college and 2 seasons in the AHL. Lewis went from the USHL to 1 year of major junior and then straight to the AHL the same year. That's what you call the fast track! He needs a bit more time, but I would say his development is right on schedule.

I sometimes forget about LaBarbera, but he did a good job for you last year under some tough circumstances. Totally agree about Bernier. Let he go down and play 65 games in the AHL. That's better for him than playing 15-20 in the show.

O'Sullivan turned into a lot better player than I thought he would. At least Nagy is off the books, no harm. The Handzus contract was a bigger mystery, to me. Good luck moving that thing - just like Souray's deal in Edmonton, it looks like you're just gonna have to live with it.

We'll be sure to give the Kings a little time on the next podcast. Any thoughts on the next coach? Are they gonna go with Johnston?

Connie said...

Oddly enough, half of us at HS/HS actually live in L.A. (Greener and I)

That's funny. If you live here, why don't you follow the Kings as your team? I was born and raised here and could never love another team. It's odd how strong that bond is no matter how terrible your team is. But I guess I don't have to tell you twice... =/

Good to know about Lewis. When I hear management drop his name, I'll definitely take note. For some reason, I have a soft spot in my heart for Moulson; can't explain it. I think Teddy is a badass, and Boyle... he's just a beast. And Barbs is so freaking cool!! If you ever met him, you'll get what I meant. And I think Sully surprised everyone, including himself, with how well he played last season. I'm just waiting for him to get his new contract.

Uhh, Handzus... his no-trade clause is a mystery to me! I don't get that. I'm interested to see the fate of Calder. He just started losing minutes and becoming more and more invisible.

As for coaches. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Kings decide to hire Mike Johnson. I REALLY wanted Hartsburg, but it appears that he wants to stay in Canada. Bummer for me.

I didn't know you had a podcast! I have two actually. Well, one is getting a face lift next week and the other is a new venture. If you give me the feed I'll check it out!

Connie said...

If you ever met him, you'll get what I meant.

Wow, that was really bad English.

Moose said... dad is from Montreal, so I was regaled with stories of the Canadiens in my youth. But, when I was about 8-years-old I saw a picture of Gretz on the cover of Sports Illustrated and that was it. Sometimes you don't pick your team, your team picks you. You know? When Gretz was traded here I was left in a position of having to hate the Kings because I couldn't stand to see them do well with OUR player.

Handzus can be a good player when he's healthy and motivated, but that contract is pure 'handcuffs'.

Interesting that you wanted Hartsburg...I think the choice of going to a semi-Cup contdender probably swayed him. I'm not sure if a young coach (Johnston) and young team is the right combo but I guess we'll find out.

If you scroll down the page a bit you'll see our podcasts - there are three off them spread over the last couple months or so.

Are your podcasts on your site? Let us know, we'll definitely check them out.

Connie said...

I do understand about having those kinds of influences. But you can't deny the influence that Gretzky had on southern California. Except for the fact that they brought another team here. THAT annoyed me to no end...

If Handzus doesn't recover from his major surgery and do something this season, you're right. Handcuffs.

I wanted Hartsburg purely because (1) ownership told management to go "even younger" and (2) Hartsburg has been in Juniors for the past couple of years and knows how to coach that level successfully. Not to mention that he won a gold medal at the WJC with 3 of my prospects last year. It just made sense to me, but some people here want Tortorella. I don't want someone here who's not going to nurture my goaltenders when that's our problem area anyway. That's just going to scare me....

Yeah, both of my podcasts are up on my page under my profile picture. One is solely for the Kings and one is going to be more broad in terms of teams and topics. I'll definitely check yours out.

Jaredoflondon said...

you lost me at free Boston Pizza for a year.

Greener said...

Jared, Howie Mandel is the commercial spokesman for Boston Pizza in Canada.

Jaredoflondon said...

Oh I know, I just started day dreaming about how wonderful that would be. I love me some Boston Pizza, they have Guiness on tap.

Moose said...

Connie: Good point about Hartsburg's WJC experience with your players.

I'll definitely check out the podcasts!

Andrew said...

I used to live in London and a few years back London's OHL team (the London Knights) was kicking ass and taking names on a daily basis. The Hunter brothers managed to find talent players by the names of Rick Nash, Corey Perry, Patrick Kane, Sam Gagner, Denis Wideman, Dave Bolland, Dany Syvret and Sergei Kostitsyn just to name a few. But in junior Rob Schremp blew all of them out of the water.

My hockey team even won a contest where 3 knights attend your practice. Schremp was 1 of the 3. Now i'm not saying that success in junior directly results into nhl success, but all of those players I named have or are likely going to win awards, cups, and end it with a HOF induction.

So fletcher, stop Finger fucking us and pick a fork in the road.